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Tee Shot Targets

I hope you are doing well, and thank you for subscribing!Today we are going to dip our toe into tee shot target selection. Specifically we will look at:

1. How fairway percentage changes based on the target selected (e.g., aiming dead center of fairway vs aiming 10 rights yard of center).

2. How trying to play for a specific side of the fairway makes little sense.

We will be using a hypothetical fairway that is a relatively generous 36 yards wide. This is wider than the typical fairway. We will look at how this changes across different skill levels. All of this is based on actual dispersion data taken from the Arccos database (use code DATALOU15 to save 15%). For a players shots to be included in this analysis, they needed to meet the following criteria:

• They hit at least 150 shots with driver in a calendar year

• They play right handed

• For each handicap index, the median distance with driver was calculated for ALL players

  • Only players that had a median distance of +/- 5 yards from the overall median distance were selected. For example, all 15 index players had a median distance of ~215 yards. For a 15 index to be included in this analysis, their median distance with driver had to be between 210 to 220 yards.

Notes:

• While I do not know the intended target for each shot hit, when I look at overall on course dispersion for a given handicap index (offline standard deviation), it aligns with several off course datasets that I have (launch monitor data), so I feel very comfortable with these numbers.

• Once the players were selected, to calculate the numbers below I only used tee shots that were within +/- 20 yards of their median distance. I wanted to use mostly "solid" shots that went "about" a players typical distance. I wanted to remove shots like tops, duffs, and the bombs that were hit downhill/downwind.

The Stats (Fairway Percent)

Let's take a look at how fairway percentage changes when we move the intended target. For each handicap index, I am showing 2 types of player:

• The MOST accurate drivers of the ball. These are players that are in the top 25% for accuracy (at their handicap index). Where accuracy is determined by offline standard deviation. These are the "straight" hitters.

• The LEAST accurate drivers of the ball. These are players that are in the bottom 25% for accuracy (at their handicap index). Where accuracy is determined by offline standard deviation. These are the "wild" hitters.

The first thing I want you to notice is when you shift the intended target, the percent of shots that end up in the fairway is probably not changing as much as you may have thought.Also, if you look at the 10 and the 15 index, their fairway percent actually starts to improve slightly when they shift their target towards the left side of the fairway. This is because as handicap index increases, players tend to miss more to the right (for a right-handed player). Next, take a look at how much of a difference there is between straight and wild players at each handicap index. Not all players at a given handicap index are created equal. The difference in dispersion size between straight and wild hitters is significant. So how can you use this info?I want your first big takeaway to be the realization that when you shift your target to almost the extreme edge of the fairway, you do not significantly reduce how often you will hit the fairway. This is because amateur players have a VERY big shot dispersion pattern with driver.Most importantly, when you shift your target near the edge of the fairway, you will significantly reduce how often you will have a "big" miss on the opposite side of the hole. If there is trouble on one side of the hole (OB, water, knee high grass, thick woods, etc...), and "room" on the other side of the hole, if you shift your target well away from the trouble you will see a decrease in how often you hit the fairway, BUT... you will significantly reduce how often you hit into trouble.Penalty strokes are scorecard killers. If you have room, do NOT be afraid to shift well away from trouble. Remember, this is for a hypothetical 36 yard wide fairway:

The Stats (Chasing a "Good" Angle)

I wrote about chasing angles in a past newsletter. That issue focused on approach shots. Here I will briefly look at what happens when a "straight hitting" 5 index player tries to play up one side of the fairway. Our hypothetical fairway in this analysis is 36 yards wide. Let's say that a "side" of the fairway is the 10 yards on either edge of the fairway. If you end up on the side of the fairway, you get the "better" angle (even though better angles don't really exist, let's pretend they do). :)How many more shots will end up on the side of the fairway if you shift your target towards that side?As you can see below. Not many. The table below is for "straight hitting" 5 index players. They hit the ball pretty darn straight as far as amateur players go. So if anyone is going to have an opportunity to effectively play up a specific side of the fairway, it would be a straight hitting lower index player. Let's say they are trying to hit one up the left side of the fairway. If their target is dead center of the fairway, 15.9% of their tee shots will end up on the left side of the fairway (where left side = the left 10 yards of the fairway). Overall, they will hit the fairway 62.6% of the time when their target is dead center. If they shift their target 15 yards left of the center of the fairway, to try to play up the left side and get the better angle, they will increase the percent of shots that end up on the left side from 15.9% to 19.1%. But... the overall percent of shots that end up in the fairway drops from 62.6% to 51.9%. Trying to play for an angle, even *IF* there is benefit to having that angle, is fools gold. Because shot patterns are so big, you will only slightly increase how often you hit one side of the fairway, but your overall fairway percent will take a hit. The juice is not worth the squeeze.

What Does This Mean For You?

1. If there is trouble on one side of the hole, and not on the other side, do not be afraid to shift your target WELL away from the trouble. While your fairway hit percentage will drop, the percent of shots you hit into trouble will drop significantly, which will have a massive impact on your scores.

2. If you are not trying to shift away from penalty strokes and just trying to play up one side of the fairway for a better angle, you need to stop doing this. The marginal increase in ending up on a side of the fairway will be more than offset by how much more you will miss the fairway.

3. You need to know where the center of your shot pattern is. Especially if you are a mid or high index player.

I am working on an online course that will be getting into all of this in a ton of detail. Stay tuned for that, it will be available in the near future!

Thank you!!

If you are enjoying the newsletter, you might also enjoy the podcast I co-host. It's called "Hack it Out Golf".

We just finished releasing an 11-part series titled:
"Learn to Consistently Score in the 70s"

We just started a new 10-part series titled:
"Ultimate Guide to Gaining Distance"

We interview multiple experts and no stone is left unturned. You will add yards!

Please give it a listen!

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Thanks so much and have a great week!

— Lou