Weekly Quiz!

To see correct answer, click “CONTINUE” button at the bottom of the next page.

Good luck! 😀 

Birdies or Big Numbers?

You are probably tired of me saying this, but the key to lower scores is NOT more birdies, it's reducing the big numbers.

The Walk Up 18

Every golfer knows the walk up 18 when your body is done.

Mine used to show up around the 14th tee. Lower back tight, swing getting shorter, and every bend to read a putt came with that “ache”.

This past week I walked and carried 27 holes. On hole 27, I bent down to pull my ball out of the cup and realized something. I felt the same as I did on the first tee.

Might not sound like much, but for a middle-aged math nerd who sits at a desk all day and has had aches and pains for years, it’s a BIG deal.

What changed? Consistent strength and mobility work with my remote trainer at P4S Golf.

The swing feels better, sure. But the best part is how rarely I think about the aches and pains now. On the course and off it.

P4S is a sponsor of this newsletter, and their support keeps it free for you. If your body quits before your round does, try their free assessment. It’s a simple way to find out what’s holding you back.

The Data

What does the data look like as we go up the skill ladder? From amateurs, to Division I college golfers, to the PGA Tour?

Let’s look across three data sets:

• Arccos Golf (DATALOU15 saves 15%) data on amateurs by handicap index

• 3 seasons of NCAA Division I men's scoring by player rank

• 10 seasons of PGA Tour scoring by strokes gained total rank

For each one, I looked at what happens as players move up the skill ladder. How much of the improvement comes from more birdies (and eagles)? And how much comes from fewer bogeys, doubles and worse?

Amateurs

Each 5-index jump is 5 shots of skill difference. Here's how much of those 5 shots comes from fewer over-par holes:

• Go from 20 to 15: 96% is from fewer over-par holes

• 15 to 10: 96%

• 10 to 5: 90%

• 5 to scratch: 80%

Going from a 20 to a 15, golfers make just 0.2 more birdies per round. That's it. Almost all of the improvement comes from turning doubles into bogeys and bogeys into pars.

Birdies don't start to matter much until you go from a 5 to scratch. And even then, 4 out of every 5 shots still come from fewer over-par holes!

College

Above are division 1 male players broken down by their college ranking. At every single step in the rankings, most of the improvement came from fewer over-par holes. It was never less than 52%. Across the group, about 68% of scoring differences are due to having less holes over par.

Same story as the amateurs. Reducing over par holes contributes more to scoring than making more birdies. Just a little less extreme than the amateurs.

PGA Tour

This is where it gets interesting. The table above is 10 years of tour data, broken down by strokes gained total rank.

At the bottom of the Tour, cutting big numbers still does most of the work. Going from being ranked 161+ to 151-160, about 71% of the improvement comes from fewer over-par holes.

But look at what separates the top 10 from the rest of the Tour.

• When you compare the top 10 players to to players ranked 11-20, 57% of the scoring difference comes from more under par holes.

• When you compare the top 10 players to players ranked 81-90, 58% of the difference comes from more under par holes.

• When you compare the top 10 players to players ranked 161+, 46% of the difference comes from more under par holes.
  

At the very top of the game, birdies start to become a bit more important.

And there's a wrinkle to point out. The best players on Tour tend to play events on courses with fewer par 5s. The top 10 play an average about 3.10 par 5s per round. The players ranked 161+ average about 3.30 par 5s per round.

Par 5s are where Tour players are far more likely to make birdie or better, and far less likely to make bogey or worse. So the top players get fewer of those easy chances. They also play more par 4s, where it's harder to go under par and much easier to go over.

They still make more birdies than everyone else.

My Thoughts

The higher you climb, the more birdies matter. But unless you're one of the best few dozen players on the planet, they basically don’t matter at all.

For amateurs, 80% to 96% of every 5-shot improvement comes from fewer over-par holes. Even in Division I college golf, it's about two-thirds.

So spend your time on the stuff that keeps big numbers off your card:

1. Keep the ball in play off the tee. Penalties lead to big numbers, and big numbers are scorecard killers.

2. Pick smart targets on approach shots. Get better at making solid contact on those iron shots.

3. Work on speed control so you can get your lag putts close to cut down on those three-putts.

4. Work on putts inside 10 feet so you can make more of the short ones.

Turn triples into doubles, doubles into bogeys and bogeys into pars. The birdies are not even remotely important for nearly every golfer on the planet!

See you next week!

 Finally...

• Advertise your business to 40,000+ readers of this newsletter.

• Shop Arccos Golf here. (Use code DATALOU15 to save 15%)

• Join Team Titleist here.

• Start your fitness journey with P4S Golf here.

• Listen to the “Hack it Out Golf” podcast on Apple or Spotify.

• Submit ideas or feedback here.
  
  Have a great week!