Lou Stagner's Newsletter #56

Birds and Doubles by Hole Length

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Birds and Doubles by Hole Length

I was chatting with a friend this week and he was wondering what his chances were to make birdie on a short par 5. Being the stat nerd that I am, I of course had to run the numbers across par 4s and par 5s, breaking it down by how long the hole is.

To prove a point to my friend, in addition to birdie percentage, I also added in the chances of making double or worse.

The data below is ONLY for five index players (which is what my friend is). I’ll run the numbers for other skill levels soon - and post those on twitter.

The tables below are from the Arccos Golf database. Which will soon pass ONE BILLION shots! Yes, Billion with a B. (Use code DATALOU15 to save 15%)

My Thoughts

Five index players are more likely to make double bogey or worse than they are to make birdie on most hole lengths. Only par 4s less than 300 yards and par 5s less than 500 yards are they more likely to make birdie.

Also note that on par 4s that are 325 to 349 yards, a five index is going to make double or worse once out of every ten times!

You are probably tired of me saying this, but the key to lower scores is NOT more birdies, it’s reducing the big numbers.

  • Turn some triples into doubles

  • Turn some doubles into bogeys

  • Turn some bogeys into pars

Finally, don’t beat yourself up if you don’t make a birdie on a “short and easy hole”. As you can see, making birdie is not that likely. The short and easy holes should be viewed as a great chance to remove the big numbers from the card, not a spot to try and make a bunch of birds!

See you next week!


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    Have a great week!

Lou Stagner