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- Lou Stagner's Newsletter #35
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What are the chances the typical tour pro gets the ball up-and-down from 100 yards in the fairway? |
Do The Tees You Play Impact Your Index?
I was recently chatting with my buddy Robbie V. who is the Community Manager at The Golfers Journal. Robbie told me about a discussion some of their members were having where they were wondering how the tees you play might impact your handicap index.
I have heard several times that “if you want to lower your handicap index, move back a set of tees”. I have suspected there might be some truth to this but never looked at any data.
The only logical next step here is a MASSIVE deep dive straight into the Arccos Golf database (Use code DATALOU15 to save 15%). 🤓
In order to be selected for this analysis, a player needed to meet the following criteria:
Play 50+ rounds in a calendar year.
For each player I looked at:
Their easiest rounds (rounds that had the lowest course ratings).
Their hardest rounds (rounds that had the highest course ratings).
I looked at the top and bottom 10% of rounds based on course rating
For example, if someone played 100 rounds in a calendar year, I would be looking at the the 10 rounds with the lowest course ratings (the “easy” rounds), and the 10 rounds with the highest course ratings (the “hard” rounds).
As a side note, it is remarkable the number of golfers playing 100+ rounds a year! Where do I sign up for this?
It is also remarkable to see how many golfers are playing a very wide variety of different courses and tees throughout the year.
I calculate the average course rating for both the “easy” and “hard” rounds.
For the golfer to be included, the average course rating between their “easy” and “hard” rounds needed to have a difference of at least 2 strokes.
For each golfer I compared the differentials of their “easy” rounds to the differentials of their “hard” rounds.
For each golfer I calculated a handicap index for both the “easy” rounds and the “hard” rounds.
OK. Time for the numbers.
74% of all players had a lower average differential for their “hard” rounds.
58% of all players had a lower average differential for their “hard” rounds by 1+ shots.
40% of all players had a lower average differential for their “hard” rounds by 2+ shots.
26% of all players had a lower average differential for their “easy” rounds.
14% of all players had a lower average differential for their “easy” rounds by 1+ shots.
7% of all players had a lower average differential for their “easy” rounds by 2+ shots.
If we calculated an “official” handicap index for each player only using their “hard” rounds, 69% would have a lower (better) handicap index compared to the handicap index for their “easy” rounds.
53% have a lower index with their hard rounds by 1+ shots
38% have a lower index with their hard rounds by 2+ shots
All of the numbers above are very similar across all skill levels.
I want to note that as players get better they tend to play a higher percentage of their rounds from the “hard” tees. Said another way, the single digit players are often playing the “back” tees and don’t venture to the forward tees too often, and the mid and high index players are often playing more forward tees and don’t venture to the back tees too often.
My Thoughts
This is very interesting.
For 74% of players, moving back a tee (or two) will help your handicap go down (get better). Many players would improve their handicap by 2+ strokes.
If you want to have your handicap go up (get worse), move forward a set of tees (or two). For many players this will help to make their handicap worse.
Technically, if you wanted to increase the chances of your handicap LEGALLY getting worse (for the Member/Guest perhaps 😉 ), just start playing the forward tees leading up to the event.
You did NOT hear this from me, but if you do try this, I get 10% of all your future earnings at your Member/Guest. 😄
Finally...
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