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Weekly Quiz!

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Does a 12 Handicap Actually Have an Advantage?

Golfers love to debate handicap strokes. Scratch players say they're handing out too many; higher handicaps always feel they're getting shortchanged. So who's right?

So, does a 12 handicap actually have an advantage against a scratch player in a net match play situation?

Let's dig into the numbers.

I looked at Arccos (DATALOU15 saves 15%) scoring distributions for 12 handicaps and scratch players. This was net score at the hole level and broken down by hole handicap. Using their scoring distributions, I ran 2 million simulated match play rounds.

Each hole had three outcomes: the 12-handicap won the hole, scratch won, or they tied.

Here's how it shook out at the hole level:
(The 12 handicap player gets one stroke on hole handicap 1-12, and no strokes on hole handicap 13-18)

Here's what this means:

• On holes where the 12-handicap gets strokes (holes ranked 1–12), overall they win about 43% of the holes, and scratch wins only around 23% of the holes.

• On holes without strokes (13–18), scratch flips it and wins just over half the time, losing only about 14–15%.

When you look across all 18 holes, the advantage shakes out to roughly:

• 12-handicap wins the match 46% of the time

• Scratch wins the match 42% of the time

• Match is tied 12% of the time

Here’s the Kicker: Course Setup Matters

If the 12-handicap receives strokes on most of the par 3s and does not receive strokes on most of the par 5s, they gain a bigger edge. In this setup, the 12-handicap's win rate climbs to 49%, while the scratch player's chances drop to 39%.

If the 12-handicap receives strokes on most of the par 5s and does not receive strokes on most of the par 3s, the advantage disappears. In this scenario, the match becomes evenly balanced, with both the 12-handicap and the scratch player having win rates of 44%.

Bottom line:

• 12-handicap: They do have a slight advantage. The more par 3’s they get strokes on, the better their odds of winning.

• Scratch golfer: To level the playing field, hope the course doesn’t give strokes away on par 3s, and instead gives a bunch away on the par 5s.

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