Weekly Quiz!

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** It should say “From 60 to 80 yards in the fairway”

Confessions of a Putting Junkie

I’ve been a putting junkie for as long as I’ve played golf.

Some people say putting is mostly a math problem. So maybe it’s no surprise this math nerd has always had a soft spot for it.

Over 4 years ago, I started using the sensors from Capto Golf. Capto is a small sensor that attaches to your putter and measures what your stroke is actually doing: face angle, path, tempo, shaft lean and a lot more.

I own two of them. The Gen 3 is their top-of-the-line sensor that teachers and some players use. The Capto EZ is built for players.

I’m such a putting junkie that I went through the same Capto certification courses that putting instructors take. (Yes, I’m that big of a nerd.) I wanted to learn everything I possibly could about the putting stroke.

I’ve been working with a few friends on their putting, and I plan to start giving lessons next year. I won’t be doing that without my trusty Capto by my side.

Capto is a sponsor of this newsletter, and their support keeps it free for you. If you want to get serious about your putting and want a tool that measures your stroke and guides your practice, I HIGHLY suggest you check out Capto.

Good Rounds vs. Bad Rounds

Last week’s issue on birdies vs. big numbers sparked a bunch of questions. Several of you asked some version of the same question… “what do birdies and doubles look like in your good rounds vs. your bad rounds?”

Fair question. Last week compared golfers at different handicaps. This one compares you to... you.

Think back to your best round this year. I would not be surprised if the first thing you remember is a birdie. The 20 foot birdie putt that was center cut with perfect speed. The wedge you stuck to 3 feet.

So are birdies what make the good rounds good?

It’s DEEP DIVE time baby! Off to the Arccos database we go!

The Data

I pulled Arccos Golf (DATALOU15 saves 15%) rounds for 5 handicap levels (0, 5, 10, 15 and 20) and split them into two buckets:

• Good rounds: rounds where you are NET 2 under or better

• Bad rounds: rounds where you are NET 7 over or worse

First, how far apart are these rounds?

For a scratch player, a good round and a bad round are about 12 strokes apart. They average -3.08 NET strokes under par in the good rounds. They average 9.33 strokes OVER par in the bad rounds. This is a difference of 12.41 shots.

For a 20 index, it’s almost 15. The higher the handicap, the bigger the scoring gap between the good and bad rounds.

So how much of that gap comes from birdies?

Birdies

Each birdie is worth 1 stroke vs. par. So “% of the Gap” is the share of the difference between a good round and a bad round that comes from making more birdies.

For example, the gap in average net score between good rounds and bad rounds for a scratch player is 12.41 shots (from our first table above). The difference in average birdies per round for a scratch player between good rounds and bad rounds is 3.35.

3.35 / 12.41 = 27%

For a scratch player, birdies are a real part of the story. About 27% of the gap.

For a 20 index? 4%.

And here’s a fun little data nugget. A 20 index averages 0.79 birdies on a GOOD round. A scratch player averages 1.14 birdies on a BAD round. The 20 index’s best days have fewer birdies than the scratch player’s worst days.

Doubles

Same math, but each double costs 2 strokes vs. par.

For scratch players, it’s basically a coin flip. Birdies explain 27% of the gap and doubles explain 28%.

Then it tilts hard. For a 10 index, doubles explain 4 times more of the gap than birdies do. At a 20 index, about 8 times more.

Now look at the good rounds column. A 15 index averages 2.01 doubles on a GOOD round. That’s more than a scratch player makes on a BAD round (1.88).

My Thoughts

You are probably tired of me saying this (I literally said it last week), but the key to lower scores is NOT more birdies, it’s reducing the big numbers.

When you play well, you remember the birdies. The data says your good rounds are the ones where it’s more likely the doubles stayed off the card.

The low single-digit player is a “bit” of an exception there. For scratch players, birdies and doubles carry about the same weight.

For everyone else, here’s where I’d spend your time:

1. Avoid penalties. It’s the fastest way to a double at every handicap level.

2. Stop double chipping. Around the green, goal #1 is making sure your next shot is a putt.

3. Lag like it matters. The higher your handicap, the bigger the share of your doubles that come from three-putts.

And manage your expectations. Even your good rounds will have doubles in them. A 15 index averages 2 doubles on a good round. That’s normal!

See you next week!

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  Have a great week!