Lou Stagner's Newsletter #118

How Temperature, Wind, and Rain Affect Scores

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How Temperature, Wind, and Rain Affect Scores

Ever blame your swing when you shoot a higher score in tough conditions? I am sure we all have.

An interesting new study by researchers Justin Ehrlich, Rodney Paul, and their colleagues at Syracuse University analyzed seven full seasons of PGA Tour data (over 108,000 rounds). No surprise that they found weather conditions have massive, measurable effects on performance.

The findings, published in the International Journal of Golf Science, reveal exactly how much temperature, wind, and wet conditions impact scores.

Cold Weather Crushes Performance

Temperature had one of the largest effects in the study. The researchers found that for every 20°F drop in temperature, PGA Tour players averaged approximately one additional stroke per round.

Think about that. These are the best ball-strikers in the world, and cold weather is costing them a full stroke per round for every 20 degree change.

If you're playing in 50-degree weather versus 90-degree weather, expect a meaningful difference in your scores.

Wind Is a Stroke Killer

The wind data is stunning. The study found that wind speed hurts scores significantly. For every 8.6 mph increase in average wind speed, average score got worse by 1.15 strokes per round.

Let's put that in perspective: in 17 mph winds versus calm conditions, that's roughly 2.3 strokes per round… and that's for tour professionals.

Wind affects every shot, from driving to putting (yes, wind can impact putts too). The wind pushes the ball offline, and adds a lot of variability to shot outcomes.

The Wet Conditions Paradox

Here's something that surprised the researchers: precipitation and high dew point actually correlated with lower total scores, even though they reduced driving distance.

The study showed that wet conditions decreased driving distance due to less roll-out on damp fairways. But players still scored better overall.

Why? Ehrlich and his colleagues believe it's because moisture softens the greens, allowing better ball control and reducing the unpredictable bounces and excessive roll that occur on firm, dry greens in windy conditions. Player also tend to hit more fairways when it’s wet (fewer tee shots bound into the rough).

What We Can Learn

  • Cold weather: Club up and accept that you'll score higher

  • Windy conditions: Higher scores are expected. Learning to flight the ball lower in the wind is a big help.

Weather is a massive performance variable. Adjust your expectations accordingly.

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    Have a great week!

Lou Stagner