So, Should You Play For The Better Angle?

For as long as the game has been played, people have been saying you should play for the better angle.

The hole is cut on the right? You should try to hit it up the left-side.

The advice is as old as the game itself. Is the advice accurate? Is it easier to score when you have the "better angle"?

To answer this question I took a deep-dive into the Arccos database.

There are 581 million shots in the database, so there isn't a question Arccos can't answer.

What Shots Were Selected?

For a shot to be used, it had to meet the following criteria:

• Second shot on a par 4

• Fairway was at least 30-yards wide where the ball was

• Hole was cut 6-yards or less from the right/left edge of the green

• A shot on the "side" of a fairway needed to be close to the edge (20% or less of the fairway width)

  • For example, on 30-yard wide fairway, the ball needed to be 6-yards or less from the side-edge of the fairway

• A shot in the center needed to be in the middle 25% of the fairway

  • For example, on 30-yard wide fairway, the ball needed to be 3.75-yards or less from the center of the fairway

• No penalty hazards in-play around the green

• Shots from the rough were not recovery shots

• Shot was +/- 2-yards from the target yardage

Results

Bottom line:

The "better" angle is not better for scoring.

For the yardages used in this study, across all skill levels:

• Center of the fairway was the lowest score 77.5% of the time

• The "bad" angle was the lowest score 17.5% of the time

• The "good" angle was the lowest score 5.0% of the time

If you only compare the "good" side of the fairway to the "bad" side:

• The "bad" angle was the lower score 59% of the time

If you compare the "good" side of the rough to the "bad" side:

• The "bad" side of the rough was the lower score 66% of the time

My Thoughts

For shots from the fairway, the center is the best location for scoring almost 80% of the time! Why? I think it's the Goldilocks principle.

Players tend to be:

• Too aggressive when they have the "good" angle

• Too conservative when they have the "bad" angle

• Not too aggressive and not too conservative when in the center

The fairway is the best angle to score from 78% of the time. Players are finding the sweet spot between too aggressive and too conservative. They have stumbled into an optimal target.

Note #1: We are typically not looking at huge deltas from one side of the fairway to the other. The biggest deltas are between fairway and rough.

Note #2: In every situation in this study, being anywhere in the fairway was better than being in the rough.

What Does This Mean For You?

Is the better angle sometimes better? Yes (but rarely). Should you intentionally play for the better angle? No. Playing for the better angle means you need to have a target that is closer to trouble (e.g. rough, bunker, trees, etc...).

Having a target closer to trouble means any benefit you gain from *sometimes* having a better angle is offset by finding yourself in trouble more often.

Does this mean you should try to ONLY center your shot pattern over the center of the fairway? No. Sometimes the optimal target is shifted well away from the center of the fairway to avoid a bunker or a penalty hazard.

All the data is below. Thanks again for reading this week!

Have a safe and happy new year!

— Lou

The Data

• There are four images below (0, 5, 10, and 15 index)

• The table on the left is for shots where the hole was cut on the left side of the green

• The table on the right is for shots where the hole was cut on the right side of the green

• Each number represents the average shots to hole out for that situation

  • There are multiple thousands of shots behind every number there

• For shots from the fairway, the lowest score is shaded in green

• There are some cells that have light grey vertical lines and the number is italicized

  • This is highlights the lower score between sides of the fairway