Three Putts by Hole

I hope you are doing well, and thank you for subscribing!I was recently looking at putting data in the Arccos database and stumbled into something I thought was interesting.

The chances of a player three putting was highest on the first hole, and then dropped as the round progressed. This held true regardless of skill level. I looked at scratch players all the way out to 20-caps.

Same for everyone.

Highest chance of three putt was on the first hole and dropped from there. The lowest chance of three putt for everyone was on the 18th hole. You can see in the first chart for scratch players, they three putt 9.1% of the time on the first hole, and 7.6% on the last.

I thought this was interesting and have a few thoughts below on what is going on.

Charts:

Good and Bad Putters

For each skill level, I looked at "good" and "bad" putters. The pattern stayed the same. Three putt percent was highest on the first hole, and lowest on the last hole. The charts below show the best and worst putters for 15-index players. The "good" putters are in the top 20% in average strokes gained putting per round. The "bad" putters are in the bottom 20% in average strokes gained putting per round. I am only showing 15-index players below, but this held true for all skill levels.

What is Going on???

I have a few hypotheses:

1. Golfers don't spend enough time warming up their speed control before the round.

2. Golfers tend to not practice putting as much as other parts of the game.

3. Practice green is a different speed than the course.

4. Mental component on early holes.

5. Some combo of the above

Additionally, I am planning to dive into other parts of the game after seeing this. I am curious how much this pattern happens with the rest of the game. Could what we are seeing with putting happen with all parts of the game? (I smell a future newsletter topic!)

What Does This Mean for You?

Until I look at all other parts of the game in detail to see if this happens outside of putting, I think there are a few takeaways.

1. Spend more time on lag putting before your round. Get a feel for different lengths.

2. If this is a theme for all parts of the game than:

   1. You may need a better warmup.

      1. Get there earlier. Do not roll into the parking lot and head straight to the first tee (donut and coffee in hand).

      2. Do a "dynamic" warmup to get your body ready to play golf.

   2. If you are warming up properly, this might be an indicator the mental game needs sharpening.

Here is a lag putting warmup that I do called 320, 330, 340. I learned this from an old friend and it has served me well. You can get through this in a few minutes.

• I hit 15 total lag putts.

• First set of putts are to a hole 20 feet away. (3 total putts)

• Second set of putts are to a hole 30 feet away. (3 total putts)

• Third set of putts are to a hole 40 feet away. (3 total putts)

• Fourth set of putts are to three different holes (from the same spot)

  • pick holes in the 20 to 40 foot range.

• Fifth set of putts are to three different holes (from the same spot)

  • pick holes in the 20 to 40 foot range.

If I have time, I add a sixth set of random putts.

Thank you!!

If you are enjoying the newsletter, you might also enjoy the podcast I co-host.

It's called "Hack it Out Golf".

Over the next six weeks we are releasing a series called "Learn to Consistently Score in the 70s". First episode drops 3/16/2023. Two episodes per week.

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Thanks so much and have a great week!

— Lou