Lou Stagner's Newsletter #133

Par 4s are NOT all the same

Author

Lou Stagner
April 24, 2026

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5 index players average 1.2 birdies per round. How many double bogeys (or worse) per round do they average?

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Par 4s are NOT all the same

A buddy asked me the other day if the #1 handicap hole really plays that much harder than the #18 handicap hole. He was only interested in the par 4s.

Interesting question. Off to the Arccos database we go for a nice deep dive!

I pulled scoring averages across ALL par 4s in the database, broken down by hole handicap (1 = hardest, 18 = easiest) and player handicap index. A few numbers jumped out:

  • Scratch players average 4.45 on the hardest par 4 and 4.12 on the easiest.

  • 20-index players average 5.66 on the hardest and 5.15 on the easiest.

  • Scratch players average OVER PAR on every par 4, even the “easy” par 4s.

  • 20-index players average OVER 5.15 on EVERY par 4 on the course - even the easiest par 4.

Let that sink in.


Now here is the part I love. I ran the same data by whether the green was hit in regulation.

Miss the green and you are adding an average of ~0.8 strokes as a scratch player and ~1.3 strokes as a 20-index compared to when you hit the green.

My Thoughts

Two things to take from this.

First, hitting greens is the key. Whichever par 4 you are standing on, the most important thing is to get the ball on the green in regulation.

Second, every par 4 is NOT the same. Tougher holes ARE tougher, and your scoring average will reflect that. A bogey on the #1 handicap par 4 is a solid score for most every amateur. Any time you are making a net par, you are doing well!

See you next week!

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    Have a great week!

Lou Stagner