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Weekly Quiz!

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The Race to Scratch: Where Gains Actually Come From

Today’s insights come courtesy of my good friend Michael Hutchinson, aka “Hutch”, who is the Senior Director of Data Science at Arccos (DATALOU15 saves 15%), and a must-follow for any golfer serious about analytics. Hutch is also the co-author of the book we are writing together, and he dropped an absolute gem of an article breaking down what it takes for a 5 handicap to reach scratch.

The TL;DR
If you're trying to get from a 5 handicap to scratch, here's what matters most:

Approach play.
Followed by Driving, Short game, and lastly, Putting.

In other words, if you’re grinding putts thinking that’s what will get you to scratch, it’s time to rethink your priorities.

What Hutch Looked At
Hutch went deep into the Arccos database and pulled out a group of 14 players who:

• Started between a 5 to 10 handicap

• Made it to scratch or better

• Logged at least 50 high-quality rounds

• Took longer than six months to do it

These weren’t weekend flukes. This was real, long-term improvement tracked over 143 rounds and 26 months on average.

Progress is Messy (But Real)
Improvement wasn’t a smooth upward slope. Instead, it looked like a stock chart. Lots of ups and downs. But from a 50,000-foot view, the trend is clear: gradual, hard-won gains.

To quantify those gains, Hutch used linear regression to measure how much each part of the game improved over a 365-day window. Here's what he found:

• Approach: +1.02 strokes per year

• Drive: +0.81 strokes per year

• Short Game: +0.42 strokes per year

• Putting: +0.25 strokes per year

That’s a total improvement of 2.5 strokes per year on average, which is enough to take a good player into scratch territory.

So Where Should You Focus?
When you break those gains down into percentages:

• Approach: 40.8%

• Drive: 32.4%

• Short Game: 16.8%

• Putting: 10%

Actionable Takeaways

1. Start with Approach Play
   Work on contact and low-point control. Hutch himself saw big gains when he stopped aiming at pins and started playing smarter targets.

2. Next Up: Driving
   Prioritize distance over fairways. Keep it in play and hit it far.

3. Refine Your Short Game
   Eliminate the chunks and skulls. Consistency beats magic.

4. Put Putting in Perspective
   Putting is important, but not as important as most think. A quarter stroke gain here and there is helpful, but don’t over-invest in practice time.

Final Thoughts
Improving from a 5 handicap to scratch is not about finding a silver bullet. It’s about stacking up small wins and staying patient.

Hutch’s analysis proves that the most efficient path is through approach play and better ball striking. You’re not going to wake up one day and be scratch. But if you keep chipping away at the right areas, you’ll get there.

As Hutch said, take the 50k foot view, work consistently toward your goals, and go after it with love, energy, and passion.

Stay tuned for a whole lot more from Hutch in our upcoming book. Until then, follow him on X (Twitter) for more top-shelf data insights.

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