Lou Stagner's Newsletter #54

Third Hole at Augusta

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Weekly Quiz!

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For a 10 index from 100 yards in the fairway, what percent of shots will finish MORE than 25 yards from the hole?

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Third Hole at Augusta

The third hole at Augusta (Flowering Peach) is a 350 yard par four. There is always discussion on whether or not you should hit driver, advancing it as far as you can, or layup to a “preferred” number.

Let’s see what the numbers actually show.

The table below shows several stats from 2019 to 2022. Second shots that had 50 yards or less to the hole are compared against second shots that had 90+ yards to the hole.

There are 15 different rounds to compare (in 2022, to hole location 2, there were no second shots inside 50 yards).

Overall, the shots to hole out was 2.78 for those that went for it, and 3.09 for those that laid back. The birdie percent for those that went for it was more than double compared to those that laid up. The bogey or worse percent was nearly three times higher for those that laid up.

The scoring average was lower 13 of 15 times for those that laid up. One time they were tied, and one time the lay up group had a scoring average that was 0.03 shots better. Seven times the group that went for it had a scoring average that was better by a quarter shot or more.

Birdie and bogey percent shows a similar pattern. When you go for it, you are typically much more likely to make a bird, and much less likely to make a bogey.

The third and fourth columns show how many shots were from each group. The numbers highlighted are the “better” numbers for that stat.

My Thoughts

Typically, you want to advance the ball as far as you can, making sure to take penalty strokes and other hazards into account!

Sorry for missing the newsletter last week. It was our home tournament at Princeton (we won!) and it was a crazy busy week for me! Back in the saddle!

Enjoy the rest of The Masters and see you next week!


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    Have a great week!

Lou Stagner