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Lou Stagner's Newsletter #123
Your Feel Is Lying to You (Here’s the Data)

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5 index players average 1.2 birdies per round. How many double bogeys (or worse) per round do they average? |
Your Feel is Lying To You
Ever hit one and know it was off the toe… only to watch it fly pin-high?
Or the opposite: you “flushed” it… and the ball lands 12 yards short?
We all live in that gap between what we think happened and what actually happened. The question is: does that gap shrink as you get better?
A really interesting study by Philip Herder and Luke Benoit (International Journal of Golf Science, 2022) looked at how accurately golfers can estimate what just happened based on feel alone, and how does that change with skill level?
The Setup
They brought in 49 golfers ranging from scratch-ish to 35 handicap and had them hit 20 shots with a 7-iron indoors. Here’s the twist: no visual feedback. Projector off. Launch monitor screen covered. Computer screen covered. They were just hitting into a net without able to see ball flight or any feedback from the launch monitor.
After every shot, each golfer had to guess:
Where they struck the face (toe/heel and high/low)
Carry distance
How far left/right the ball finished (offline dispersion)
Then they compared the golfers’ estimates to what actually happened using GCQuad measurements. They wanted to understand: How good are you at calling your shot when you literally can’t see the result?
What they found (the part that should change your practice)
As skill improved (lower handicap), “feel” got a lot better for two things:
1) Strike location (toe/heel and high/low)
This was the strongest relationship. The better the player, the closer they were at identifying where they hit the face (especially toe vs heel).
In their stats, the relationship between handicap and horizontal strike estimation error was strong (r = 0.675). Vertical strike estimation was also meaningful (r = 0.534).
Translation: better players aren’t just hitting it more centered… they’re more aware of where they hit it.
2) Carry distance
Better players were also more accurate estimating how far the ball carried (r = 0.428). Not as strong as strike location, but still real.
Now here’s the surprising one…
3) Offline direction (left/right finish) did not improve with skill
Handicap had basically no meaningful relationship with how accurately players estimated how far offline the ball finished (r = 0.114).
That’s wild, right?
It suggests that without seeing ball flight, it’s really hard to figure out if “I pulled it” or “that’s going right”… even for good players.
Why this matters (and why golfers get stuck)
If you’re trying to improve, feedback is everything. And most golfers don’t realize they’re often practicing with bad feedback.
If you can’t accurately sense strike, you might make the wrong adjustment.
If you can’t estimate carry well, you’ll misjudge your gapping and your club selection.
And if you think you can feel direction, you may chase fixes that don’t match reality.
This study doesn’t say “feel is useless.” It says something better:
Feel can be trained… but only if you build a tight feedback loop.
And it also hints at what’s harder to train: knowing your offline direction seems to depend heavily on being able to actually see the ball flight. Without that, the brain fills in blanks… confidently… and incorrectly.
What you should do this week (simple, measurable, effective)
Here are two drills that turn “feel” from a guess into a skill.
1) The Strike-Call Challenge (10 minutes)
You need impact spray, impact tape, a dry-erase marker (or a launch monitor that can measure this).
Hit 10–20 shots.
Before you look at the face, call it: toe/heel and high/low.
Then check the strike.
Keep score. Literally: “How many did I call correctly?”
Do this twice a week and you’ll start building what I call a feel library: what sounds/feels match up to where you hit it on the face? Keep practicing this, and you will improve your sense of feel. To make this game even better, intentionally try to hit a specific part of the face, and before you check, guess where it actually hit on the face.
2) Call Your Carry (and stop grading yourself on total distance)
On the range, most golfers fall into a trap: they judge shots by where the ball ends up (roll included), and then wonder why their on-course yardages are inconsistent.
Instead:
Pick a target with a known distance (this is much easier with a launch monitor).
After each shot, call your carry before checking it.
Track your error (e.g., “My guess was +6 yards… then -4… then +2”).
Your goal isn’t perfection. Your goal is calibration.
Because better golf isn’t “always hit it great.” It’s “know what happened and choose the right response.”
One more thought before you go
Herder and Benoit’s study is a reminder that improvement isn’t only about mechanics. It’s also about perception… and great players tend to have better perception of the things that matter most: strike and carry.
Spray the face, call your strike location on the face, and improve your feel and your ball striking!
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Have a great week!


